星期日, 六月 29, 2014

转帖:星报-Fiamma的前景与CEO访谈

看了星报的访谈后,我想我本打算在7月才开始的背水一战必须提早结束了。这篇文章写得非常的正面,Fiamma的前景与我的推断相去不远,只是Jalan Yap Kwan Seng的发展计划总值却比我预算的高出一倍(RM600mil的GDV)。我相信Fiamma明天必定会大涨,价格也会距离我早前所设立的目标越来越近了,因此我打算慢慢退出了这场战役。无论如何,我还是会继续分享它的核心业务-贸易,然后做个总结,Fiamma为我在2014年上半年的投资画上了完美的句号。接下来的半年,我会跟随寒江兄出战Weida,这次我跟船就好,当然若有时间的话,我也会分享一些Weida的功课。在此我恭喜有跟随我买入Fiamma的小股东,也很庆幸自己又再次侥幸过关了。再加上Fimacorp的红股与股票拆细都为我锦上添花,今年投资/投机可以说是非常的幸运了。

Fiamma - Odd business mix bears fruit
Published: Saturday June 28, 2014 MYT 12:00:00 AM

SEVEN years ago, Fiamma Holdings Bhd made a bold venture into property development despite it not being synergistic with its core business of distributing home appliances.Today, however, the group says it is comfortable with its position in both business segments, adding that its property venture has begun to bear fruit for its bottom line.

Fiamma – whose market cap stands at RM256mil – started selling home appliances in 1979 in Johor. Among the household brands it distributes today are Elba, Faber, Tuscani and Braun. The company acquired two parcels of land in the KL city centre in 2007, but its plans to develop them faced several snags, as it sorted out land title and approval issues.

This year, Fiamma is targeting the completion of its maiden property project in October with a gross development value (GDV) of RM150mil. The 23-storey office suite tower, Menara Centara, with 10,000 sq ft of retail space is located on Jalan Tuanku Abdul Rahman in Kuala Lumpur. Chief executive officer and managing director Jimmy Lim Choo Hong says 35% of the development will be kept for recurring income, and that the group has signed a tenant for nine years. The average selling price is RM700 per sq ft.

For the financial year 2013 (FY13), property development contributed 9.6% to group revenue and 11% to net profit. Most of the contribution came from the sale of its Menara Centara office suites, while a fraction was from the sale of its landed houses in Kota Tinggi, Johor. Fiamma’s full-year net profit for 2013 was RM34.69mil, 29% higher than the RM26.92mil achieved in FY12.

“For this financial year onwards, the contribution from the property division should be higher,” says Lim without giving any projections. Now that its property development business is taking off, Lim says the group’s strategy is to launch one or two projects a year. “How many projects we launch will depend on our cashflow. Cashflow comes first,” he says in an interview.

Next year, Fiamma is targeting to launch two serviced apartment projects in the Klang Valley - one in the city centre and one in Bandar Manjalara. The city-centre serviced apartment is situated on Jalan Yap Kwan Seng on a 60,000-sq-ft plot of commercial land behind the Public Bank officer tower. Lim says the project, with a GDV of RM600mil, will have two blocks, making up 46 storeys of more than 400 units based on a plot ratio of ten. The selling price has not been finalised yet, Lim adds.

The total sellable floor area for this project would amount to over 400,000 sq ft, according to its building design Fiamma is currently seeking approval for. “The current market has an appetite for small unit properties, especially for those buying their first home,” he says, noting that Fiamma has thrown out its initial plan of building a Grade-A office development.

“We had earlier submitted proposals for a Grade-A office, but we would need to sell it en bloc, and the current market won’t be able to take it up,” Lim says on some of the adjustments Fiamma has had to make in keeping up with market trends. This project will be launched in the first half of 2015 and Lim plans to launch it in overseas markets like Hong Kong and Singapore before Malaysia.

Its other project is the redevelopment of its three-acre Bandar Manjalara land adjoining its headquarters. Currently, Fiamma is using this portion of the land for its warehouse facility. “But given the market rate and our need for more space, we will be moving our warehouse to Klang where we have bought a piece of land to build a bigger facility.” The project, with a GDV of more than RM300mil, will also offer over 400 units of serviced apartments in two blocks, albeit with bigger floorplans offering up to three rooms. Unlike its city-centre counterpart, the Bandar Manjalara project will cater to young local executives and will be priced around the RM500,000 range.

Apart from these two developments, Fiamma has also launched a serviced apartment project in Johor Baru and has an ongoing link house development in Kota Tinggi, Johor. All its land acquisitions are paid up, leaving Fiamma with zero net gearing.

Although Fiamma is serious about making its property development business work, it has no plans to change its core trading business. “We are not a full-time developer and do not intend to change our business into 100% property development,” Lim points out.

Fiamma’s steady and long track record in the trading of home appliances is reason enough for the group to keep the business. This matured business division has enjoyed 35 years of trade, and is still growing, albeit at a slower pace. Lim says the group continues to expand its product offerings, especially to consumers.

Aside from home appliances, it also distributes imported kitchen fittings under the Rubine and Haustern brands, as well as medical devices under brands like Omron and Charder for both home and professional use. Lim says the impetus for Fiamma to diversify into property development was due to his personal experience in the sector, having started his private business developing projects in Johor some 15 years ago.

“Also, our home appliance business was already quite saturated because the domestic market is not big enough,” he says. A fund manager who has met with the management says that for its home appliance segment, Fiamma operates on a comfortable gross margin of above 20%.

“The trading and distribution business has been growing continuously since 2005 and is generating a profit-after-tax and minority interest of around RM27mil per annum.”

He notes that the business segment requires minimal capital expenditure, but needs some working capital when growing. “If we took out the five parcels of land and their investment property from the books, we would see that this business has a consistent net-cash return on capital employed of 30% per annum,” he adds.  Fiamma was last traded at RM1.99, having risen 8.74% year-to-date. According to Bloomberg data, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings of 6.74 times.

星期四, 六月 26, 2014

Fiamma 2008-2013年的股权变动

随着这几天的上扬,Fiamma的股价来到RM2.00以上的水平,我认为目前的价格已不适合再继续追高了,公司虽然明显低估了,但上涨得那么急总也要点时间来巩固股价的吧?如果错过了,那就算了吧!市场最不缺乏的就是好股,只要肯用心做功课,总会有收获的。

今天我想谈谈Fiamma的股权,我相信若公司的业务或前景不错的话,大股东就不会在市场随意买卖股票,我想管理层更乐意把时间与精神放在业务上。为此我翻了2008-2013年的年报并把Fiamma的股东股权变化记录下来,为了更容易分析Fiamma的股权变化,我把凭单+普通股,然后记录9大股东在2008年派发附加股后的股权变化:

从上图可以看到9大股东中只有Ng Hook与Ng Seng Kuan夫妇在这6年里卖出股份,而其它的大股东却是维持或不断的增持Fiamma的股票,尤其是Casa Holding的CEO - Lim Soo Kong更在附加股后大量买入Fiamma的普通股与凭单,而这9位主要的大股东就紧紧握住了Fiamma 85%以上的股权。从这里可以看出,Fiamma的股价在2块钱以下还是属于低估的,Ng Chuei yeen在股票开番后还继续买入就可以看出他对公司的信心。

顺便谈一谈凭单,翻看2013年的年报就能够找到凭单的数额 = 35,970,000股,其中99.9%的票都在30大股东的手里,这也是它的凭单这几天都没有什么成交量的主要原因。Fiamma的凭单是随附加股派送,并于2008年11月3日开始交易,在2018年11月届满。

Fiamma的凭单是随着附加股免费赠送,凭单的派发总数为57,229,666,若以今天仅存的凭单计算,fiamma的股东们在过去的几年已经转换了约23,259,666的凭单,而且大部分的凭单都是由大股东们转换为普通股的。这是上市公司少见的例子,大股东折几年选择转换凭单来增持公司股权而不是把它当成炒作的工具让我感到很安心,也让我深信Fiamma的前景大好并预期会派发丰厚的股息(这是废话,如果前景不佳,大股东怎么可能转换凭单?)。

我粗略计算过,就算全部凭单转换后,公司的每股盈利也只会冲淡20%左右,对一家过去数年都有双位数成长的公司来说,这凭单的影响并不大,这也是我认为它的合理价格应该处于8-10倍本益比或RM2.40-3.00之间。(贸易同行如ECS、DKLS与Harisson的PE就明显比他来得高,同时profit margin却比它低)

注:(RENOUNCEABLE TWO-CALL RIGHTS ISSUE OF UP TO 42,922,250 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM1.00 EACH IN FIAMMA HOLDINGS BERHAD ("FIAMMA" OR "COMPANY")(“RIGHTS SHARES”) TOGETHER WITH UP TO 57,229,666 FREE DETACHABLE WARRANTS (“WARRANTS”) AT AN ISSUE PRICE OF RM1.00 PER RIGHTS SHARE (OF WHICH THE FIRST CALL OF RM0.70 WILL BE PAYABLE IN CASH ON APPLICATION AND THE SECOND CALL OF RM0.30 IS TO BE CAPITALISED FROM THE COMPANY’S RETAINED PROFITS ACCOUNT) ON THE BASIS OF THREE (3) RIGHTS SHARES TOGETHER WITH FOUR (4) WARRANTS FOR EVERY SIX (6) EXISTING ORDINARY SHARES OF RM1.00 EACH HELD IN FIAMMA AT 5.00 P.M. ON 3 NOVEMBER 2008 ("RIGHTS ISSUE OF SHARES WITH WARRANTS")

星期日, 六月 22, 2014

浅谈Fiamma的产业发展前景

Fiamma产业发展业务的投资布局在2007年开始,可是却一直到2012年的Menara Antara的发展计划启动后才看到 微薄的盈利贡献,Fiamma2013年全年的产业发展计划为公司带来了约11.4%或RM5.72的税前盈利。Fiamma今年首两季的产业发展贡献就高达16.257mil,已经远远超过了去年全年的贡献,我觉得这是一个很不错的开始,至少多年的布局终于开始为公司带来了丰厚的利润。

接下来,我想股东们最担心的是现有的地段发展后,产业发展的贡献会不会又回到了原点呢? Fiamma在Kota Tinggi的地库比较大,能够让公司发展3-5年,但发展规模都不会太大,也不会有滞销的问题存在。翻看2013年年报70页,竣工后尚未卖出去的产业只有区区的RM1.14mil VS 2012年的RM3.17mil。

至于KL的黄金地段发展,Menara Antara的发展将在今年年秒竣工,公司就只剩下了1.4亩位于Jalan Ampang, KL的永久地段了,2007以RM38.77mil价格买入并从未重估,也就是我在Q2‘14季报提及的将发展为高档房产并预期能够为集团在2016-2018财政年带来丰厚的盈利。

大家都在疑虑着没有了黄金地段后,Fiamma的产业发展会不会又陷入瓶颈呢?
我想对此感到忧虑的朋友都忽略了非常重要的一点,若翻看2011与2012年的年报产业表,就会发现Fiamma在2011年5月11日签署了合约,把Wisma Fiamma(Bandar  Manjalara)的地段分割成两个部分,2012年的Fiamma年报只能够看到Wisma Fiamma的部分(市值约RM30.7 mil),还有另一部分市值约RM31.4mil的地段就被转移到Land held for property development。而被转移的这块土地在2013年年报中又出现了,它被部分网友误解为仓库地段或不能够发展的地段。

Fiamma于今年5月16日宣布了以RM30.1mil的代价收购Puchong约6.28亩的地段来充当仓库,我想这项收购就是为了取代现有的仓库,并释放其在Bandar  Manjalara地段的价值,把这黄金地段发展成为商业发展。为此,我就很努力去寻找这被分割的地段有多大,市值多少? 很庆幸的,这些资料很好找,就在2013年年报中第95页中可以看到(如下图),而且Fiamma的子公司在去年10月31日签了买卖合约,以RM83mil的价格脱售这块地皮给产业发展的子公司。(基于这些都是公司内部的整合,盈利不会在“P&L”中出现,不然若要计算这块地皮从RM40mil的价格翻倍到RM83mil的话,就是RM43mil的盈利了,公司的股价也就随着飞天了)

这12,270 square metres的地段就是相等于3 acre,也就是比它在Jalan TAR与Jalan Ampang的地段加起来还要大,我想最少也能够让它发展上3年吧? 随便算算一下,若加上这一块地段,Fiamma的KL地段的产业发展至少在7年内都不会面对地库的问题了。换句话说,Fiamma绝对有能力靠产业发展持续成长,有了这7年的冲缓期,相信以管理层的能力必定能够找到不错的地段来补充地库了。因此,我才信心满满的来一次背水一战。(我认为能够预见公司数年的成长已属不易,而能够在基金未发现前买入布局就有机会赚大钱了)



我个人认为,RM2.00以下买入Fiamma是比较安全的,因为我在去年11月年报未出炉前以接近2块钱的价格脱售fiamma的时候,依稀记得当时的买盘在RM1.97-1.98是以数百张来计算的。我猜想这是Etiqua基金的买盘,当时的股东没有卖票就是说它们更加没有理由现在在RM2.00以下出货。RM2.00以上则是没有屋顶的Fiamma了,可能会一飞冲天,也有可能会引来部分股东的卖盘,这就不是我所能够掌握了的。我会分几个阶段来写Fiamma,毕竟它是我目前的重仓股,我对它做的功课与心血也是这2、3年来最多的。

星期四, 六月 19, 2014

Fiamma Q2'14 成绩单与我的一些看法

Fiamma Q2‘14交出亮眼的成绩单,每股净盈利高达8.42分vs前期5.55分,盈利增幅约59%,是它上市以来的最高水平,主要归功于其产业发展Menara Antara的贡献。最令我感到鼓舞的莫过于它的净现金从RM25.8mil倍增至RM58.1mil,我认为fiamma已经开始步入了稳定收成期,接下来极有可能就是与小股东分享成果的时候了。因此,在季报出炉后,它的股价曾一度猛涨至RM1.91的水平,可惜很快的就被压低至RM1.80的水平,我觉得这是非常不合理的,因此我就开始逢低买入,打算把它当成我下半年投资组合的主力之一。(买得比上次Prolexus被压价还积极,因为我对Fiamma的前景更具信心)。

说来有点惭愧,我曾在论坛的荷兰客栈分享买入这家公司的考量,却没想到引来了许许多多的争论,网上甚至流传了fiamma并不值得长期投资,理应逢高套利云云。当时我并不急于出来澄清,不过却以逢低买入的行动来证明我对它的信心,慢慢的我也累积了约我投资组合35%的比重。

从Q2'14的季报中,我看到的信息是:

  1. 现金流非常的棒,每股现金高达RM108.4mil,净现金高达58.1mil。这还是在增加股息的当儿完成,超赞!
  2. 贸易部营业额比去年同期萎缩了3%左右,但赚幅却下滑至11%使到贸易部盈利贡献减少。
  3. 产业部的营业额与赚幅大幅度走高,为公司的盈利创下新高。
  4. Royal@Taman Kota Jaya的产业发展计划开跑,Vida Residenz的发展计划却延后了。
  5. Menara Antara的发展进度不错,相信能够顺利在2014年年杪竣工。
  6. Investment property的市值增加到RM31mil,其中约15mil是来自Menara Antara,我相信这是公司保留作为出租用途的商业单位,这意味着2015年开始,Fiamma的产业投资收入将会大幅度增加。
  7. 除此之外,公司的地库 - 除了86亩的Kota Tinggi Tai Hong land部分,其它的地库都在property development cost中记帐,这意味着公司在近期内在这些地段进行产业发展,其中就有我已期待 许久的KLCC附近的永久地段的高档房产计划,我相信就算2016年才开始发展也好,预期不少过300mil的产业发展计划必为公司带来非常可观的利润。(网络有篇文章写KLCC的房产过剩有点武断,据我所知市中心的永久高档产业叫价不低却不乏买家的)
我仔细翻看了数年的年报与公司近期的发展,我认为公司领导层的能力不错,是值得信赖的管理层,因此虽然股价已经回到了RM1.87的水平,我还是觉得它还是被严重低估的。如果它的合理PE是8-10之间,而今年每股盈利能够达到30分的话,那它最少也值RM2.40-RM3.00之间,是市场中买少见少的遗珠股之一。唯一可惜的是它的成交量不高,30大股东紧握91%的票,近来的卖压相信也是30大股东的某位股东出票,我觉得机不可失,相信这位股东卖完它的票后,它的价格很快就会起飞了。最重要的是这家公司再怎么糟糕也有4.2%DY并逐年增加的股息,即使是熊市来临,我也看死它不会再次跌破RM1.00,原因是大股东过去的几年都用RM1来转换不少凭单,如果它跌破1块钱,我想它很快就会被私有化了。

星期三, 六月 11, 2014

长期投资组合 - Update 06/10/2014

随着这几个星期一直不断卖出我长期投资组合的票,我半年前所谓的长期投资组合最后还是失败了,目前手头上除了留着一些免费票之外,长期投资组合里头的Fimacorp、Tasco、Prlexus、Mercury与SHL都套利了。2014年截至今日的整体回酬高达20%,比去年同期来得好,除了长期投资组合为我带来不错的回酬之外,投机股项如Latitude、FPI、Kfima、Magni、Delloyd与Plenitude等都为我赚取了点零用钱。

从5月开始,我就开始逐步的卖出了手头上涨得差不多的旧货,获得的资金则买入了WTK、Eksons、OSK、OSKPROP、OSKPROP-WC与UOAREIT。其中,基于WTK交出差强人意的成绩单,我就果断的卖出了大部分的WTK,转而买入业绩好股价却不断下滑的Fiamma。

这几个月里,我的投资组合里头的股票差不多每个星期都出现变化,我知道我已在股市中迷失了,什么长期投资、一步一脚印、价值、股息都被我抛在脑后了,举个例子: 我以前是不会去考虑买入凭单的,但这次却贪图它会随着母股的步伐快速上扬而进行了投机活动。

我认为,我若继续这样胡乱投机下去的话,我很快就会给贪婪打败了,相信恐惧很快也会找上门了。因此,我在5月杪把现金比重从40%提高至55%后,就开始减少投机的买卖了,美其名是等待6绝魔咒还有预期世杯球赛的淡市才开始进场布局,实则是我自己需要点时间来冷静思考自己下半年的投资方向。除此之外,我的另一个考量就是早前提及牛市第3期的疯狂期也渡过了5个月了,投机的也差不多该见好就收了。

过去的半年,我花了太多时间在看市场,手机的荧幕差不多每个小时都会查看市场的价格走势,在论坛的荷兰客栈里的回复也破了我过去回贴的记录。太靠近市场,也就犯下了许多的错误:

  • 错估了Eksons卖地的影响,卖地盈利需要8-10个月才会入账,我却心急怕买不到货去与市场先生抢货,因此我亏钱是应该的。
  • 对CPO的价格走势过于乐观,虽然我选择的都是非种植公司进军种植业来减少CPO价格的风险,但很显然的我又是看错了。
  • Delloyd的私有化让我感到意外,我买入不久后股价就连连上扬,短短的4天里就从RM3.30的价格涨到RM4.00,我感觉到不可思议,因此把大部分的票都放了,怎知过后就有了私有化的消息。(这是我高估了自己,还以为我的分享左右了股价的走势,却不知原来碰巧遇上私有化才有这样的涨潮,Delloyd的私有化让我学到了:事出必有因!股票不会无缘无故的大涨,也不会因为个人的影响在那么短的时间大幅度上扬。)
  • WTK季报的乐观,看着美元走势还有木材、夹板公司纷纷公布激励的业绩,我就开始期望WTK能够达到每股5分的盈利,期望越大,失望也就越大。还好,WTK的分享并没有害到网友们蒙受金钱上的损失。
  • 在越南排华事件中,我只买入了极少量的Latitude与magni,事实证明这些灾难都是短暂的影响,我的信心还是严重不足啊!因此才会以观望为主,白白错失了低价入货的时机。
  • 还有就是Prolexus在1.50左右出场,我太热衷于短期的盈利了。一直都没有陪伴成长股一起慢慢成长的耐心,这点可得多多学习。
接下来,我想我该重新看看投资的书籍,让自己清醒清醒一下,也为自己7月的背水一战好好的准备一下了。

星期六, 六月 07, 2014

Eksons Q4'14 成绩单 + 我的一些看法

Eksons Q4’14的成绩单咋看之下会觉得很糟糕,每股盈利只有区区的1分,虽然比2013年同期来得好,可若与其它的木材业者比较的话就不够看了。因此,它的股价随之下滑至1.30左右的水平是可以理解的。

木材业务营业额只有区区的RM28mil并承受轻微的亏损RM0.3mil,季报中指出这次的营业额下降的主要原因是买家的海运姗姗来迟,导致部分销售/盈利无法志入Q4’14的季报中。这也就是说部分营业/盈利将会在下季度的季报进账,同时也指出夹板业务相当的平稳。我认为这RM0.3mil的亏损是属于非常好的成绩了,如果算上未来得及进账销售的生产成本(电费、工钱之类)与约2.8mil的减记的话,Eksons最后一季的成绩单其实是非常亮眼的。公司现金减少的主要原因是库存增加(没能出货)与在3月完成了总值RM26mil的买地交易(6.5 acres Petaling Jaya的永久地段)

左看右看的,我还是觉得Eksons还是值得去期待的,因此5月尾在股价下滑至1.30-1.31,我毫不犹疑就加码了一点点来守株待兔,接下来的几个看点:
  1. 下季度的业绩会非常好看(加上Q4’14延迟交货的营业额)
  2.  常年股息(15%的股息政策,相信最少派发2.5)
  3.  Eksons卖地后的一次过盈利,每股净现金将大幅度提高
  4.  卖地后的派发的资本回退或特别股息
  5.  新的产业发展计划预期在今年内推介