星期日, 四月 24, 2016

ARREIT - 阅读、记录、等待

我想REIT的年报应该是最简单易懂,图文并茂的解释业务的进展,读起来也不会闷气。最近我又翻看了ARREIT的年报,就做点纪录+功课给大家参考一下:

1。 预计2016年度的盈利会超过6分,同时会派发部分脱售产业的盈利于股东。(在公告处我们可以看到脱售Wisma AmanahRaya已在1月27日完成,预计将实现约8.31mil的盈利(realize profit))
2。Silverbird的官司已接近尾声,silverbird在高庭败诉后就向联邦法院提出上诉,并定于5月31日过堂。(我相信这是最后一次的官司了,ARREIT的胜算相当高。)
3。管理层成功把债务再融资5年(利息与往年一样)
4。管理层把脱售产业的资金留下来收购产业(管理层已锁定数项回酬率超过6.5%的产业进行投资,并在3月25日宣布以32mil收购办公楼与仓库,前提是租客需签下6年的租贡合约。)
5。今年租约到期的租客都愿意续租,这也意味着除了silver bird工厂之外,所有产业的出租率都是100%。
这几天,ARREIT的走势并不怎么乐观,一直在87.5-89分的价位游走,因此我就耐心等候,有便宜货就买一点点投机,没有就算了,我预计Q1'16的业绩会有1.8分左右,股息最少也有1.6分或接近1.8%左右。

看了数据,我觉得它有几个值得投机的地方

  • 1月实现脱售产业,可能会出现比往常较高的派息虑。eg 2sen。
  • 5月尾官司告捷,回收产业。(能够顺利出租更好)
  • silverbird可能需要赔偿过去2-3年的租金(1.5倍)- 有固然好,没有也无所谓。
  • 比对下bursa公告里3月31日与去年12月31日的NET ASSET VALUE / INDICATIVE OPTIMUM PORTFOLIO VALUE,预料Q1'16的EPS高达1.8分。


若全年的股息6分以上或DY=7%左右,虽然投资的潜在回酬并不高,但却胜在稳定。大部分散户对它的兴趣并不是很大,有部分投资者甚至觉得若要投资REIT,那干脆放在FD更好;投资REIT的付出与投资其它类型的股票都差不多,何不选高回酬的股票? 对我来说,这其实并没有对错的分别,只要觉得适合自己就好,因此我偶尔也会找REIT来投机一下,就当做打发时间与磨练自己的观察力好了。

阅读年报后,记录下来自己的看法与投机的理由,接下来就是等待了。有便宜货就买,没有就算了。

写于4月18日

星期二, 四月 12, 2016

Chinwel - 得失之间

Chinwel 的股价自2月26日欧盟决定撤销对中国紧固件反倾销税之后,股价就一路的跌至RM1.61 (跌了约25%左右)才出现反弹。在4分股息除权后,它的股价在1.61-1.66之间摆动,因此我个人认为这项坏消息已经反映在股价上了,而股价也逐渐稳定了下来。

接下来就是等5月出炉的业绩了,从管理层访谈中(如下文),他们预测新条例只会影响bulk purchase的部分或相当于20%的欧洲市场销售或2015财政年营业额的11%左右,它的影响或许并没有我们预料中的那么大,而最赚钱的DIY业务则不受影响。

利好

  • TPPA签署后,打开美国市场(免除美国8%的进口税), 美国PrimeSource的订单又来了。
  • 安全篱笆与石笼网需求庞大
  • 年杪增产与进军物流业
  • DIY业务不受影响 (越南的成本优势是中国厂商无法复制的)
  • 进军物流业,耗资RM12.8mil在巴生港口地段建设仓库来增加被动收入,预计在6-9个月内竣工。
  • 今年预计能够达到每股20分的盈利,40%股息政策 = 8分,DY = 5%。

利空

  • 欧洲bulk purchase的部分销售额
  • 马币走强对出口不利
  • 中国厂家的竞争或许会导致欧洲市场的利润减少(单位数毛利,目前是15%左右)
  • 中国厂家的价格未定前,买家按兵不动导致2-3月的销售减少。

总个来说,我认为这一次的利空或坏消息,或许是一个不错的投机机会。短期内公司的成长会受到一些负面影响,但长期而言应该是利多于弊。至少,落实了总比让投资者胡乱猜测而造成恐慌来得好。



资料连接:
欧盟撤销对华紧固件反倾销税官方文件
http://news.luosi.com/articles-9872.html

欧盟正式撤销中国紧固件反倾销税
http://news.luosi.com/articles-9866.html

转贴:Chin Well (MYR1.67): Anti-dumping repealing to affect ~10% 
We attended Chin Well’s 2QFY6/16 result and corporate update briefing today. The repealing of anti-dumping law in EU for fasteners from China (effective 26-Feb) may not be as bad as it seems.

In terms of numbers, only its bulk sales of bolts may be affected, which makes up 20% of EU sales, i.e. MYR56m (~11% of FY15 revenue). In the likely scenario of margin compression due to the need to match China’s pricing, management has guided for single digit margins. This division is enjoying ~15% PBT currently. If this halves to 7.5%, the estimated PBT reduction is MYR4.2m, i.e. less than 10% of FY15 PBT.

We also find comfort in (1) China’s labour cost increase; (2) part of the repealing involved a promise of being more environmentally friendly, lowering CO2 emissions and proper waste water treatment (Chin Well pays MYR0.6-0.7m every month); (3) China’s promise to cut 15% output over five years; (4) Failure of China manufacturers to stock up on wire-rod which saw prices shoot up 30% since January; (5) perception of inferior quality of China products; (6) most customers would source from various countries (as per past practice) for risk and cost hedging.

It is hard for China to penetrate the DIY market as it is labour intensive and there is usually a 1-year customer audit period. Cost wise, environmental cost increase could mean a levelled playing field for others vs China by 2020. Lastly, there will also be a time-lag of at least a few months before China’s threat materialises, due to the above mentioned factors.

Having said so, the fact is everyone is holding back big/bulk orders awaiting China players' pricing. Chin Well has only received small urgent orders during this period. 

Whilst it will be hard for Chin Well to repeat its 1HFY6/16 PATMI growth of 113% with the expected headwinds, management has shared two expansion plans.

It intends to invest ~USD400k for a gabion machine end-2016. Currently, its gabion and fences capacity are fully utilised. In 2Q, wire product revenue jumped 28.2% YoY as it secured more new projects in Malaysia and began regular supplies overseas. 

Chin Well is also looking to set up a recurring source of income. It has commenced construction of a new automatic warehouse in Port Klang for MYR12.8m, which will complete within 6-9 months. It plans to utilise 30-40% of the space, whilst renting the remaining out for storage of hardware related items. At 80% utilisation, management hopes for ~MYR2m p.a. contribution.

Separately, on the US side, it seems that the worst is over. Orders are coming in, though not consistently and not at previous levels. PrimeSource is Chin Well’s only customer in the US and the supplier of Home Depot. The PrimeSource takeover resulted in inventory rationalisation and order halts (due to over stocking previously) which affected Chin Well significantly.

The group’s balance sheet remains solid. It currently has a net-cash position of MYR71.4m.

As its stellar performance is not expected to continue into the 2H, we look at its 12M trailing EPS of 20.7sen (vs. annualised 1H EPS of 24.6sen). The stock is trading at 8.1x trailing EPS, which is below its 3-year historical average PER of 11.4x.