星期四, 五月 25, 2017

Chinwel Q3'07 成绩单

EPS = 4.9分 VS 前期3.61分 , 进步了约35.5%。

Chinwel这一季的业绩比我预期的4.5分来得好,也是这几年来表现最好的第3季,更让我感到意外的是它的营业额竟高达RM140.6mil,这还是在员工短缺的前提下达到。由此可见,Chinwel已从中国商家加入供应欧洲标紧固件的影响中走了出来,订单、业务都逐渐恢复正常了。

值得一提的是来自本地的标紧固件与钢线产品的需求非常强劲,为公司的业绩带来积极的效应。根据早前星报报导它从4月开始将会提升50%的钢线产品产能(从300mt 至450mt)来应付激增的需求,只待外劳(人手不足)的问题解决后,Chinwel就能再次展翅高飞了。

5月初星报提及的人手不足并没有在季报中提及,或许必须写信去公司询问才能够找到答案了。


星期日, 五月 21, 2017

Choobee Q1'17 成绩单

聚美业绩比我预期来得好,EPS高达10.6分VS去年同期2.62分,进步了305%,是过去数年里最好的季度表现了。可以预见的是明天的股价会随着盈利大好而再次走高,再加上9分股息的宣布,股价再破新高也是等闲事罢了。

然而,中国扁钢价格从今年4月开始下滑却逆转了它在扁钢价格上扬的利好,再加上聚美的库存又重新回到RM191m或相当于6个月的库存,接下来的形势就没那么乐观了。

没有了扁钢价格上扬的利好,它就得靠国内需求来维持盈利。路边社的消息都说最近的扁钢市场很冷清,尤其是来自房产建筑的需求更是迟迟不见起色。综合种种信息,我个人认为它下季度的业绩并不乐观,因此,逢高套利或许也是个不错的选择。


星期四, 五月 18, 2017

Chinwel之我见(马后炮篇)

这几天Chinwel慢慢往上爬,我想来个马后炮来解释这2个星期的走势。基于Chinwel是我的主力之一,因此我的论点或许会有点主观,大家看看就好。

在The Star报导未出炉之前,Chinwel的卖压相当的大,一直有源源不断的货抛出来。(我能够感受到卖压因为我在上季度业绩投机失败后,就一直住着套房,间中也不断的微量买入来摊平我的成本价)

报导出来之后,就只出现了两天比较冲动的卖盘(应该是信心不足的散户都被震出局了吧? 其实我失算了,因为我只在低价位买入相当于我组合约15%的票罢了,错失了加码的良机,我本以为卖压不会那么快过去的)。

当跌到1.61就出现强大的扶盘,卖盘也开始转弱了(这时候想必想卖的都卖光了吧? 因为我排低2-3个价位要买票都买不到了)。

当该卖的都卖完之后,成交量就开始减少,股价也开始慢慢的往上爬。

直到今天,几乎没有多少丢下来的票,成交量更因此萎缩到110.5张,而今天的buy rate更高达87%。在这样的跌市之中,Chinwel的表现可以说是相当的好了,我相信若业绩符合预期或有4.5分以上,它继续上扬的几率相当大。

这一轮的下滑到回升,历时差不多两个星期,不少游离票慢慢的游到了较为长期的投资者手里。(老板都说了人手不足会影响盈利表现,几乎判了接下来两个季度的盈利死刑,在这样的情况下,还有谁会去接票? --> 我觉得是长期投资者的几率比较高)

季报应该会在下个星期出炉,基于第3季度是传统的淡季,过去3年的EPS都不超过4分。虽然路边社说盈利会破5分,但我可不敢过于乐观,我只期望着这一季度的盈利有4.5分就好了。

话外题: 
寒大问我为什么要投资Chinwel这样慢慢爬的股票,问我目标价是多少? 我说若PE12的话,应该有RM2.4左右吧? (毕竟Chinwel与姐妹公司可是世界标紧固件的龙头,标紧固件的毛利依然维持10%以上,拥有强劲的现金流与40%的股息政策,PE12的目标并不算过份,它的姐妹公司晋亿的PE可高达70耶!)

寒大回答说,Chinwel是好股,但不会爆发。在这样的市场,我们应该找一些汗血宝马让我们的盈利最大化比较上算。我则认为既然我过去都靠这类比较冷门又素质良好的公司获得不错的回酬率,实在没有放弃的理由。因此, 我就这样的看着大家投机暴发股赚大钱,而我则一直坚持守着这家慢慢爬的马。

我觉得投资方式没有对错,只要适合自己的就好。或许寒大的方法能够用最短的时间赚取最大的盈利,但我还是坚持走自己的路。当然,我会选择把一部分的资金拿出来陪客栈的其它大神投机暴发股,不然傻傻看大家赚钱后找自卑药吃就显得太糊涂了。


星期二, 五月 02, 2017

浅谈今天在星报发表的Chinwell报导

今天的这篇在The Star的Chinwell报导是比较负面的,尤其是标题几乎会让人联想到接下来两个季度的业绩都不会理想,股价大跌5分也是在情理之中。可是,我仔细看了这篇报导后,我认为接下来的业绩表现或许并不会太糟糕。主要是因为2017年的前两个季度,无论是营业额,还是盈利都比去年同期减少了10%左右,因此即使接下来的两个季度业绩与去年同期稍好,也是比2016年差了。

从不同的角度来看这篇报章,或许就会得到不一样的结论:
1。来自亚洲、欧洲的订单开始回流,公司却因人手短缺而无法继续接订单。
--〉对我来说,人手短缺的问题比没有订单容易解决多了,也是企业很好的一个挑战。短期可以用OT来暂时缓解压力,这样在报章谈及人手短缺(外劳),也有让政府官员正视这问题,毕竟外资工厂在本地投产却没有员工,是政府外劳政策的失败!若不解决的话,那以后怎么吸引外资来我国设厂?
2。公司必须预先支付13.9%的保护税,单单今年第四季就得付出约5mil的税务。
--〉这就是说大马工厂第4 季购买原料就高达37m,才会有5m的税务。若这原料在2018年的第一季入账,再加上税务回扣,那就会很好看了。 (原料占成本的50%,算算下,这37mil能够贡献的营业额可不少哦)
3。2017年财政年,公司预计能够生产90,000 tonnes的标紧固件,与2016年持平。
--〉这也意味着公司在人手不足的情况下并没有流失多少市场率,是好消息来的。不过,或许上两个季度的销售价格调低了,因此营业额与盈利才比去年差。
4。 wire rods的价格上扬了接近20%,公司也针对不同的客户调高了10-25%的价格。
--〉公司有能力把原料价格转嫁给客户,这当然也是好事。
5。 DIY的产品将会进军新的欧洲市场
6。钢线产品的生产力将会提高50%,从300tonnes至450tonnes。
--〉这也符合我早前的推断,本地的钢线业务是公司未来的成长动力。
7。** Zion Market Research report, the global industrial fasteners market, valued at US$84.9bil in 2016, is expected to reach US$116.5bil in 2022, and is anticipated to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 5.4% between 2017 and 2022.
--〉标紧固件从现在到2022的复利成长约5.4%,相信解决了人手问题后,公司就能够迎来成长了。

总结是,我个人依旧认为Chinwell是一只值得投资的股票,尤其是公司超强的现金流与稳健的资产足于支撑它的股价,因此有下跌就是不错的买入机会,我会建议逢低加码。公司的第3季度是公司传统的淡季,过去3年的EPS都少过4分,不过公司早前表示欧洲的订单在今年1月开始回流并入账,因此我预期这个月即将出炉的业绩会比过去好,至少也能够达到4.5分。以目前1.66的价格计算的话,它的PE少过9,算是市场低估的股项之一。现在是牛市,轮炒风正炙,实在没有换股的理由,或许轮轮下,会轮到它大涨也不定。早前的Choobee还不是也从许许多多的负面消息与评论中杀出来一条荷兰路吗?


Tuesday, 2 May 2017
Chin Well sees lower revenue and bottom line due to labour shortage

BUKIT MINYAK: Chin Well Holdings Bhd is expecting a lower revenue and bottom line for its financial year 2017 ending June 30 (FY17) compared to FY16 due to a labour shortage and higher safeguard duties on wire rods from 40 countries, including China.
Group executive director Tsai Chia-ling told StarBiz that although the markets in Europe and Asia had improved and orders for fasteners were steadily coming in, the group was not able to take in all the orders due to a labour shortage, which would have an impact on its performance for FY17.
“Besides a labour shortage, we have to pay a 13.9% safeguard duty on imported wire rods, an essential raw material for fasteners from China.
“Although the duty is refundable, we will only be able to get the rebate in 2018.
“We have to pay about RM5mil of duty just for this fourth quarter ending June 30.
“This will impact our revenue and bottomline for FY17,” she said.
For FY17, the group is expected to produce about 90,000 tonnes of fasteners, about the same as in FY16.
Tsai said that the price of wire rods had increased by about 20% since January 2017.
“This is because China has curbed the production of steel due to its implementation of the Blue Sky project to cut down on environmental pollution.
“Steel-based product producers worldwide have raised their prices in response to the situation.
“We have to increase the price of fasteners by 10% to 25%, depending on who the customers are,” she said.
On its do-it-yourself (DIY) fastener business, Tsai said the plan was to broaden the range of DIY fasteners in 2017 to tap into new markets in Europe.
“Meanwhile, the group is increasing its production of grill mesh in Bukit Minyak next April to 450 tonnes a month from the current 300 tonnes.
“This is slightly more than a third of its installed capacity of 1,200 tonnes a month.
“The grill mesh orders are for a United States customer based in Malaysia,” she said.
The European market is expected to contribute about 50% of the group’s revenue for 2017, compared to 52% in 2016.
“The concentration will still be on the European market, where we can produce high-value fasteners that can generate better margins.
“In Asia, the market opportunities to sell high-value fasteners are limited.
“This is why the DIY fasteners are targeted at the European and US markets,” she said.
According to the recent Zion Market Research report, the global industrial fasteners market, valued at US$84.9bil in 2016, is expected to reach US$116.5bil in 2022, and is anticipated to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 5.4% between 2017 and 2022.
“The global industrial fastener market is primarily driven by rapidly increasing demand from the end-use industries such as automotive, aerospace and construction.
“Furthermore, the strong recovery in construction and the automotive segment is sustaining growth in the developed countries,” the report said.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/02/chin-well-sees-lower-revenue-and-bottom-line/#cCws9ESgfoyZb7rZ.99