星期一, 二月 27, 2017

Chinwel Q2'07 成绩单

EPS = 4.81分 VS 前期6.23分 , 退步了约23%。
股息=3.5分 VS 前期 4分,减少了12.5%。

Chinwel这一季的业绩比我预期的5分少了一点点,主要是欧洲的营业额萎缩了约23%,拖累了集团的整体表现。而公司在大马业务(石笼网及防盗网)则获得相当不错的成长与盈利表现,总算为公司保住了约14%的毛利。

管理层曾表示欧洲的部分订单在11月份开始回流,相信下个季度的业绩就会出现强劲的复苏并重新走向成长的道路。值得一提的是公司的现金流,这几年公司不断偿还债务后,公司的每股净现金增加的速度相当的快,目前已达到了每股34分,它可真是一家现金牛公司呀!

投机业绩虽然失败了,但我对它将来的业务复苏却相当有信心,因此我决定继续守下去,并会逢低加码来摊平成本。真想不到,我刚从Complete的套房check out不久,就得Check in Chinwel的套房了,或许唯一不同的是这间套房有提供饮食(Dividend),不怕被饿死了!

转贴:
Chin Well may gain if US firms up protectionist stance
By Sangeetha Amarthalingam
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on February 27, 2017.


KUALA LUMPUR: If the new US president Donald Trump makes real his threat to take a more protectionist stance against China, carbon steel-fastener maker Chin Well Holdings Bhd expects to be one of the companies to benefit.

“We will not be affected by the US [protectionist] policy against China because we don’t sell anything to China. In fact, we stand to gain from it as the policy would hurt China, meaning that steel prices would rise, increasing our revenue,” said its executive director Tsai Chi Yun.

Tsai said this because China, she claims, engages in dumping activities which end up slashing steel prices in the industry as it floods the market with lesser quality products that are produced cheaply without having to comply with environmental regulations.

Such allegations caused Europe to restrict imports of Chinese fasteners in 2009 — which was a boon to steel players elsewhere. But the abrupt lifting of this anti-dumping policy last year means China-produced fasteners are competing for a piece of the European pie again.

Still, with the enforcement of a new environmental policy in China, low-quality manufacturers have to pull up their socks and upgrade their facilities, or close down. “Therefore, we believe low-quality manufacturers will be out of the market in a year or two, depending on how strong the Chinese government stands.

“There have been effects [on other steel-fastener players] from the lifting of the anti-dumping policy [in Europe], but it will get less and less as years pass because cost is increasing in China,” she said.

Meanwhile, the industrial fastener sector, especially in the automotive segment, which has been seeing a slowdown recently as global economic growth slows, is only expected to recover after 2018 when global economy picks up, she said.

Which is why Chin Well is looking at its new gabion, fences and chicken mesh downstream products to raise its top and bottom lines of its financial year ending June 30, 2017 (FY17).

The group currently derives its profit from fasteners (80%) and wire products (20%). Fasteners are parts such as nuts and bolts, screws, clip, rivets and pins that are used to connect components.

“We are also looking for new customers for our DIY (do-it-yourself) fasteners from the West to increase our profit and turnover,” said Tsai. The new wire products, parked under the wire products segment, together with the DIY fasteners under the fasteners umbrella, were introduced in 2006.

“We hope to expand the new market for these products further in Europe and North America because now is the time for it. People tend to engage in DIY home fixings when the economy is down to avoid labour cost. As such, we have seen volume rise up to 25% every year for the last few years.

“We are also looking to secure two or more customers in Europe. We are talking to a few now. In future, we hope to have one customer in each country in Europe. At present, we supply to the top five companies in Europe for the industrial fastener sector,” said Tsai over the telephone.

In Malaysia, the gabion and fence products, which contribute about 23% of its group revenue, depend on government projects such as highways and slope reinforcements while the property market is soft.

In its first quarter ended Sept 30, 2016 (1QFY17), net profit dropped nearly 29% to RM12.9 million from RM18.2 million in 1QFY16 while revenue shed 19% to RM113.3 million compared with RM140.6 million a year ago as the fastener segment’s revenue fell 19% to RM96.8 million mainly due to lower demand from overseas, particularly European countries.

As for the wire products segment, revenue was RM16.5 million, down 20.6%, also due to lower demand.

Although European demand for industrial fasteners dropped, it has several “loyal and long-term” customers in Europe that kept their orders up on a “mutual understanding” basis, said Tsai.

She added that the customers would reflect the market situation in the EU to them and in return, Chin Well would inform them on the supply situation in Asia in order to strike a win-win deal. “Our sales grow when customers’ [businesses] grow in Europe,” Tsai explained.

Chin Well’s customers are made up of 70% foreign companies while the rest are Malaysians.

Tsai said the group’s current order book will last until May, adding that its FY18 order book would grow if the global economy improves.

According to Global Industry Analysts Inc in February last year, the world market for industrial fasteners was expected to grow to US$83.8 billion by 2020, driven by an improvement in global economy, and reviving automotive and manufacturing sectors.

SandlerResearch.org forecasts the global industrial fastener market would grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.05% between 2016 and 2020, with the Asia-Pacific being a major revenue driver, according to its October 2016 report.

“Low-cost manufacturing benefits due to the availability of inexpensive labour and cheap raw materials will result in the growth of major end-user industries such as automotive, aerospace and defence, shipbuilding, and railways which, in turn, will boost the growth of the market in this region,” said SandlerResearch.

Chin Well shares closed unchanged at RM1.74 last Friday with a market capitalisation of RM521.2 million.

星期六, 二月 25, 2017

SWKPLNT Q4'16 成绩单

2016年第2 季  EPS = 2.35分 VS 前期1.03分 , 进步了约128%。

SWKPLNT的盈利在产量减少12.3%的情况下依然比去年同期增长了128%,若不是这季度出现约RM7.1 million的减值损失,它的盈利还会更高。然而,最让我不解的是管理层并没有任何的派息建议,让我的心冷了下来。很显然的,公司管理层今年或许会选择保留资金来发展业务而忽略了股东的权益。

股息是我投机它的理由之一,因此即使公司的业绩出现了好转,1月份的产量也比去年同期高出了约10%左右,这次的投机活动算是失败了。除此之外,Bursa种植股的上扬趋势并没有成型,年初走高的种植股在CPO价格下滑之后纷纷回跌。SWKPLNT算是比较稳定的一家,股价一直都在1.75-1.80之间游走,也可算是不幸中的大幸吧?

SWKPLNT的业务已经出现复苏的迹象,也是Bursa最为低估的种植公司之一,长期投资或许会有不错的回酬。可我的出发点就是投机股息与种植股的上扬趋势,既然这两点都没有出现,那我也唯有认错赔钱了。

星期二, 二月 21, 2017

投机Chinwel的业绩

今年初好不容易选了3家公司(latitude, Magni, Genm)来进行投资,怎知还没买到多少张就迎来了个小牛市,貌似买什么股都涨,只是手痒交易的我手头上一直都保留着约70%的现金在手而错失了许多让盈利奔跑的机会。

看到客栈里大大们都大赚特赚的时候,有时我也会很冲动的想要大大力的huut下去,爽快的投机。然而,我还是很克制自己的投机,不敢对单一股票下重注,就怕万一不小心住了套房,已退休的我实在是无法承受资金受套而无法动弹。

于是,我就重新翻看上次已被刷下来的公司,上星期看到星洲日报报导Chinwel的客户订单从去年的11月开始回流,我想Chinwel最坏的情况或许已过去了。虽然它的股价也一样的从谷底RM1.38回升至RM1.7x的水平,可若与其它钢铁股比较的话,这样的涨幅算是靠后站的了。

今天看到Latitude爆表的业绩,我对Chinwel的业绩有了更高的期待,这一季的业绩将受惠于美元走高(它出口至欧盟的产品以美金结算)与钢铁价格走高,我相信即将出炉季报的每股盈利最少也能够达到5分。

再加上常规的4分股息,就算住套房,也有早餐吃呀!Chinwel的业绩预计在下星期公布,大家祝我好运吧!

功课:


转贴:
欧客户订单回流.晋纬冀今年报佳绩

2016年2月,欧盟撤除中国钢铁制品的反倾销税务后,部份欧洲钢铁品商家,转向钢铁制造价格更为廉宜中国怀抱。这一波冲击,对出口至欧洲国家为主的晋纬控股(CHINWEL,5007,主板工业产品组)造成了一定的影响,这是否意味,晋纬控股日后在营运方面会面对更大困难,且让该公司董事经理蔡芑云剖析未来走势。

蔡芑云接受专访时表示,自欧盟撤除中国的反倾销税后,再加上欧洲当地的经济低靡,以致部份客户寻求更便宜的货源,转向中国下单。“此外,欧洲经济低靡及英国脱欧事件,导致市场更加谨慎。不少欧洲客户停止下单,直至消耗了库存后才重新下单。”

蔡芑云坦言,2016年11月以前,欧洲部份客户订单转移至中国,对公司确实有影响。截至2016年9月30日为止,晋纬控股首季来自欧洲的营业额下降29%至5422万8000令吉。

蔡芑云强调,去年11月后,欧洲客户的订单已经恢复至正常水平了,有关盈利预期将在2017年1月后入账,并反映在2017年中。“部份欧洲客户发现中国的产品质量并不如晋纬控股,因此也纷纷回流至公司。”

蔡芑云说,过去,中国钢铁品制造成本廉宜,主要是当地工厂并没有重视环境保护,因此制造成本可以拉低。现在中国当局重视环境保护,并制定了新条例以保护环境。在新条例下,制造业需增设环境保护设备。

生产成本至少2亿
“原本没有相关环境保护设备的钢铁业者,在新的条例需要增添废水厂等设施,对中国钢铁制造业而言,成本亦大幅增加。”

蔡芑云亦认为,中国业者需增加环境保护设备,因此中国未来2至3年内的制造成本,并不会比东南亚国家来得低“晋纬控股自设立产线以来,废水处理设备一直都有不断进行升级,因此环境保护成本对公司并没带来额外的成本。公司每个月的废水处理成本约60万令吉左右。”

询及生产门槛,蔡芑云说,生产技术并没有太高的门槛,不过,要达到如晋纬控股一站式的规模生产线,不包含土地与建筑成本在内,至少需要2亿令吉。

“生产扣件经过酸洗(pickling)、退火(annealing)、成形(forming)、穿线(threading)、热处理(heat treatment)等众多步骤,一些小规模的工厂,并没有条件购置不同类型的机器,因此无法提供一站式的生产。”

英镑滑弱无影响
有关英国脱欧事件进而造成英镑滑弱一事,蔡芑云表示,公司与英国客户向来的营业额以美元计价,因此英镑滑弱,并未对公司造成任何影响。

“基于钢铁原料约50%的成本是以美元计价,若客户选择以其他货币计价,需要收取一定的手续费。因此,客户以美元作为计价货币,可以节约一定的成本。来自欧洲的营业额30%为美元,70%则为欧元。”

蔡芑云补充,英国自己动手(DIY)的客户,甚至要求公司多供应扣件给他们,但碍于大马厂房面对员工人手不足问题,以致产能无法扩充。

蔡芑云说,公司在大马业务未来的成长主要是依赖石笼网(gabion)及防盗网(Fencing),而DIY的扣件成长则仰赖越南的厂房。

“大马部份河流正在进行河流整治工程,而这些工程都需要使用石笼网。防盗网方面,则用于大道及铁轨项目,公司已经攫取了部份基建项目的相关合约。”

有意在巴生河流域建仓库
晋纬控股曾提及,有意在巴生河流域的地库建造仓库,以增加经常性收入。蔡芑云表示,建筑文件已经呈交给有关当局,目前,正在等待相关批文。“上述仓库完成建造后,预期每个月可贡献约8万令吉租金。”
 
与中台联盟公司资源共享
询及台湾晋禾、中国晋亿公司及大马晋纬控股关系时,蔡芑云说,前两者由大伯蔡永龙及叔叔蔡永裕掌控。蔡芑云也透露,晋纬控股透过上述两家公司的联盟关系,在采购原料方面取得最合适的价格。

蔡芑云说,父亲蔡永泉与哥哥蔡永龙及弟弟蔡永裕,三兄弟在大马、上海与台湾各自掌控不同的公司。

“晋亿是上海交易所上市公司,账目若涉及晋纬控股,那么两家公司都必须翻译各自的文件给当地监管机构,文件处理工作方面,显得相当繁琐,因此大家决定账目“分家”。”

账目“分家”, 仍保持合作
蔡芑云补充,晋禾、晋亿与晋纬的账目“分家”了,但大家仍保持合作关系,在采购原料上,就具备很好的议价能力。

“晋纬控股负责欧洲和东南亚市场,晋亿则主要负责中国与美国市场,至于晋禾则主攻高端扣件市场。晋禾生产的扣件较适合高端建筑物使用,如吉隆坡双峰塔一类的建筑物。”

蔡芑云举例,若有欧洲客户向晋亿下单,那么晋亿会把客户转接给晋纬控股,同样晋纬控股亦会把美国客户转交给晋亿。

“3家公司都会资源共享,分享市场行情、走势与策略。中国市场一旦有什么变动,我堂弟亦会最快通知我,告知行情的变化。”

文章来源:
星洲日报‧投资致富‧企业故事‧文:谢汪潮‧2017.02.12

星期六, 二月 18, 2017

Choobee Q4'16 季报

聚美业绩正如我所料般比去年同期好太多了,种种迹象显示产品需求疲弱,价格稳定或向上对聚美更加有利。季报指出客户依旧是谨慎的买入库存,换句话说就是客户的存货并不多,只要工程或房产发展开始回温,产品需求就总会回来的。我在想,市况那么差就能够达到每股4-6分左右的每股盈利,若市场真的大好,盈利岂不是来个大爆发?当然,这只是在钢铁价格能够维持在现有前提下才有机会爆发。

目前,钢铁股项之中,聚美绝对是最低估的一家,上次出现的买入时机或许就一去不返了。几个月前能够独排众议坚持买入的人不多,买入了能够守到现在的更是难能可贵,因此若下星期聚美大涨,合该大赚。

管理层虽然表示本地市场竞争激烈,可聚美却有着相当不错的竞争力如拥有庞大的现金来买货(成本会更低),再加上Mega退出市场后能够获得更自由的购买原料的利好,只要天时、地利、人和都配合好,我相信它是有能力再次重返数年前高价位(RM3 = PE13)的。