星期二, 五月 02, 2017

浅谈今天在星报发表的Chinwell报导

今天的这篇在The Star的Chinwell报导是比较负面的,尤其是标题几乎会让人联想到接下来两个季度的业绩都不会理想,股价大跌5分也是在情理之中。可是,我仔细看了这篇报导后,我认为接下来的业绩表现或许并不会太糟糕。主要是因为2017年的前两个季度,无论是营业额,还是盈利都比去年同期减少了10%左右,因此即使接下来的两个季度业绩与去年同期稍好,也是比2016年差了。

从不同的角度来看这篇报章,或许就会得到不一样的结论:
1。来自亚洲、欧洲的订单开始回流,公司却因人手短缺而无法继续接订单。
--〉对我来说,人手短缺的问题比没有订单容易解决多了,也是企业很好的一个挑战。短期可以用OT来暂时缓解压力,这样在报章谈及人手短缺(外劳),也有让政府官员正视这问题,毕竟外资工厂在本地投产却没有员工,是政府外劳政策的失败!若不解决的话,那以后怎么吸引外资来我国设厂?
2。公司必须预先支付13.9%的保护税,单单今年第四季就得付出约5mil的税务。
--〉这就是说大马工厂第4 季购买原料就高达37m,才会有5m的税务。若这原料在2018年的第一季入账,再加上税务回扣,那就会很好看了。 (原料占成本的50%,算算下,这37mil能够贡献的营业额可不少哦)
3。2017年财政年,公司预计能够生产90,000 tonnes的标紧固件,与2016年持平。
--〉这也意味着公司在人手不足的情况下并没有流失多少市场率,是好消息来的。不过,或许上两个季度的销售价格调低了,因此营业额与盈利才比去年差。
4。 wire rods的价格上扬了接近20%,公司也针对不同的客户调高了10-25%的价格。
--〉公司有能力把原料价格转嫁给客户,这当然也是好事。
5。 DIY的产品将会进军新的欧洲市场
6。钢线产品的生产力将会提高50%,从300tonnes至450tonnes。
--〉这也符合我早前的推断,本地的钢线业务是公司未来的成长动力。
7。** Zion Market Research report, the global industrial fasteners market, valued at US$84.9bil in 2016, is expected to reach US$116.5bil in 2022, and is anticipated to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 5.4% between 2017 and 2022.
--〉标紧固件从现在到2022的复利成长约5.4%,相信解决了人手问题后,公司就能够迎来成长了。

总结是,我个人依旧认为Chinwell是一只值得投资的股票,尤其是公司超强的现金流与稳健的资产足于支撑它的股价,因此有下跌就是不错的买入机会,我会建议逢低加码。公司的第3季度是公司传统的淡季,过去3年的EPS都少过4分,不过公司早前表示欧洲的订单在今年1月开始回流并入账,因此我预期这个月即将出炉的业绩会比过去好,至少也能够达到4.5分。以目前1.66的价格计算的话,它的PE少过9,算是市场低估的股项之一。现在是牛市,轮炒风正炙,实在没有换股的理由,或许轮轮下,会轮到它大涨也不定。早前的Choobee还不是也从许许多多的负面消息与评论中杀出来一条荷兰路吗?


Tuesday, 2 May 2017
Chin Well sees lower revenue and bottom line due to labour shortage

BUKIT MINYAK: Chin Well Holdings Bhd is expecting a lower revenue and bottom line for its financial year 2017 ending June 30 (FY17) compared to FY16 due to a labour shortage and higher safeguard duties on wire rods from 40 countries, including China.
Group executive director Tsai Chia-ling told StarBiz that although the markets in Europe and Asia had improved and orders for fasteners were steadily coming in, the group was not able to take in all the orders due to a labour shortage, which would have an impact on its performance for FY17.
“Besides a labour shortage, we have to pay a 13.9% safeguard duty on imported wire rods, an essential raw material for fasteners from China.
“Although the duty is refundable, we will only be able to get the rebate in 2018.
“We have to pay about RM5mil of duty just for this fourth quarter ending June 30.
“This will impact our revenue and bottomline for FY17,” she said.
For FY17, the group is expected to produce about 90,000 tonnes of fasteners, about the same as in FY16.
Tsai said that the price of wire rods had increased by about 20% since January 2017.
“This is because China has curbed the production of steel due to its implementation of the Blue Sky project to cut down on environmental pollution.
“Steel-based product producers worldwide have raised their prices in response to the situation.
“We have to increase the price of fasteners by 10% to 25%, depending on who the customers are,” she said.
On its do-it-yourself (DIY) fastener business, Tsai said the plan was to broaden the range of DIY fasteners in 2017 to tap into new markets in Europe.
“Meanwhile, the group is increasing its production of grill mesh in Bukit Minyak next April to 450 tonnes a month from the current 300 tonnes.
“This is slightly more than a third of its installed capacity of 1,200 tonnes a month.
“The grill mesh orders are for a United States customer based in Malaysia,” she said.
The European market is expected to contribute about 50% of the group’s revenue for 2017, compared to 52% in 2016.
“The concentration will still be on the European market, where we can produce high-value fasteners that can generate better margins.
“In Asia, the market opportunities to sell high-value fasteners are limited.
“This is why the DIY fasteners are targeted at the European and US markets,” she said.
According to the recent Zion Market Research report, the global industrial fasteners market, valued at US$84.9bil in 2016, is expected to reach US$116.5bil in 2022, and is anticipated to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 5.4% between 2017 and 2022.
“The global industrial fastener market is primarily driven by rapidly increasing demand from the end-use industries such as automotive, aerospace and construction.
“Furthermore, the strong recovery in construction and the automotive segment is sustaining growth in the developed countries,” the report said.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/02/chin-well-sees-lower-revenue-and-bottom-line/#cCws9ESgfoyZb7rZ.99

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