星期三, 一月 19, 2011

种植业 - 油棕的主要数据

虎兄说得对,要投机油棕股,我们就不该忽略印尼的产能与库存数据。谢谢Tcs兄分享印尼油棕研究中心网站,糊涂才能够把印尼与大马的数据整合起来(下表),目前的库存竟然达不到产量的一成;若南美大豆油再次歉收的话,我相信油棕期货价格很快就会突破2008年的高峰(RM4200)了。
http://iopri.org/stat_produksi
 
2007
2008
2009
2010
Indonesia Stock Level
1690
2040
1300
1750
Malaysia Stock Level
1682
1994
2238
1641
Stock Level Total
3372
4034
3538
3391
Indonesia Production
17420
19400
21000
22100
Malaysia Production
15823
17734
17562
17111
Total Production
33243
37134
38562
39211
Stock Level/Production
0.101
0.109
0.092
0.086

下图为全球产量、消耗与产量数据:过去两年的需求成长超越了产能的成长导致库存逐渐减少,2010年更因气候因素而加剧了供应的紧张局势,从而推动油棕期货价格大涨。糊涂猜想油棕供应开始步入产量减少的月份(1-5月)将会进一步的把库存推入谷底,6-9个月内期货价格肯定能够站稳于RM3000以上的关口。因此,糊涂认为现在投机Delloyd或TDM的胜算是相当高的。若今年下半年的气候与去年相若的话,那大家可就真的要准备吃“贵油”了,所以现在不赚它一笔可就真有点说不过去了。
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx
附上油棕期货价格走势图


66 条评论:

Alan 说...

糊涂兄,可是依据图表,08年总产量为43,941,total domestic consumption为42,535,供需平衡,棕油价还是来到RM4200的高价。反过来说,这是否也意味着棕油价不是因为供需问题才涨到高价呢?

匿名 说...

1月棕油庫存料跌10.2%

(吉隆坡8日訊)大馬1月的棕油庫存預計下跌至6個月以來的最低點,因為海外需求超過了緩慢的產量。


從5家種植公司的預測中數調查所得,1月份大馬的棕油庫存量料下跌10.2%,至145萬公噸。

由於主要產區採集活動受到洪水和暴雨影響,導致產量疲軟,料下跌14.8%至105萬公噸。

出口額則料下跌5.1%至122萬公噸,但仍高於產量。基於大量庫存和植物油價格上漲,在1月底的農曆新年假期以前,中國減少棕油進口。

產量下跌

1月從印尼進口的原棕油,增加了13.1%至12萬公噸,因為該國將在2月開始提高出口稅,從原有的20%提高至25%,所以當地廠商試圖在出口稅提高之前,將原棕油運出。

貿易商表示,產量可能因為柔佛及沙巴州的洪水淹沒了主要種植區而繼續下跌,而這兩個地區的產量佔全國產量的一半以上。

雖然降雨及洪水已經放緩消退,但長期的潮濕依然會影響棕油產量。海外需求量在農曆新年假期後有望恢復,但在價格高企的情況下,料不會有太大的增長。棕油在週二創下了三年新高。2月份從印尼的棕油進口,可能會在印尼政府徵收高稅後下降,而棕油價格將持續走高。

倘若大馬及印尼的天氣持續惡化,棕油價格可能會進一步走高。市場人士也會緊密的關注阿根廷的天氣,因為這將影響大豆的產量。

關注大豆產量

近期的的天氣預測顯示,南半球炎熱和乾燥的天氣,大豆的產量料減少。分析家指出,美國農業部預計將公佈2月的大豆產量報告,大豆庫存預料會更少。

匿名 说...

精挑细选: 棕油价走高 嘉隆发展受惠
2011/02/07 3:43:26 PM
●罗凤琴


濒临3800令吉关口的原棕油价格,估计在面对恶劣气候造成的供需失衡下,料于今年首季冲破4000令吉,并进一步试探4486令吉的历史新高水平。

鉴于原棕油价格近期势不可挡,估计种植股项的走势料会与棕油价格并行,其中嘉隆发展 (TDM, 2054,主板种植股)料是其中一家受惠的公司。

各股的股价走势已证明种植股是马股市中具抗跌能力的股项,也是最经得起时间考验的企业,因为种植公司拥有最重要资产——地库,价值有升无降,是保值的最佳资产。

嘉隆发展的主要业务为种植与提炼棕油,该公司的前身为登嘉楼发展与管理公司,嘉隆发展的种植面积约占了登嘉楼六分一的总种植面积。

嘉隆发展的主要股东为登州政府的两家机构,股权为68%,分别是PMINT和登嘉楼州务大臣机构。

除此之外,该公司涉及医院与家畜业,这些业务都是与生活息息相关的必需品,需求只会随着人口增长、经济增长而不断增加。

嘉隆发展拥有收入稳定的油棕种植业做为核心业务,可为公司带来稳定的现金流;而该公司在2006年的每公顷鲜果串(FFB)产量仅为15公吨,后在积极提升下,原棕油与棕仁产量后来也逐年增加,现为约每公顷20公吨,符合全国每公顷平均产量。

扩充种植地段

另一个有利该公司的因素为棕油价格的高企;目前,棕油价冲破每公吨3500令吉。该公司估计其种植领域盈利有望在2011年进一步取得15%到23%的增长。

除此之外,嘉隆发展也将继续扩充其在加里曼丹的种植地段,以提升效率。

该公司早前在印尼加里曼丹收购的4万公顷农业地,首阶段占地2万5000公顷已开始展开种植。

预计该公司的种植面积将有所提升,并预期到了2011年或2012年,可开始取得回酬。

财务实力稳固

嘉隆发展也是一家财务实力稳固的公司,该公司拥有1亿2200万令吉现金,有足够的财力发展这个新油棕园,并无需借贷。

目前,嘉隆发展的油棕园大部分在盛产期,预计5年内无需翻种。

在支出减少的情况止,盈利估计会相应提高。

依据嘉隆发展的一贯作法,该公司一般把盈利分配成3部分,其一是当作股息回馈给股东、其余两部分作为股票储存及扩展用途。

这家公司秉持不错的派息策略、净资产也高企,同时也手握大笔的现金,低企的债务有助于让该公司日后的运作更上一层楼。

公司前景

脱售缺乏潜质业务

公司的首要任务是脱售缺乏潜质的业务,同时提高其余业务单位的表现。

另一方面,嘉隆发展也设法提升其位于登嘉楼于双溪东聂和甘马挽的两座棕油厂的加工流程与营运,增加原棕油与棕仁的榨取率与质量。

长期而言,公司计划通过扩大种植面积及提高生产力来改善核心油棕业务。

在家畜业方面,该公司计划建立有力的品牌,以期在清真市场拥有主导地位。

【投资风险】

●由于种植地需要3至5年之后,才看到成果,该公司短期内的营业额与盈利增长75%来自管理效率,25%则视油价走涨带动。全球需求及供应、气候条件等,将会造成原棕油价格低于预期。

●原油价格高涨,将导至成本上扬,进而直接引致其核心油棕业务的生产成本高涨。

●股票流动率欠佳,透过雇员认股计划(ESOS)增加股票流通量。

Mister Leaf 说...

那跟油棕有关系的股会如何呢?

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