星期六, 七月 12, 2014

浅谈Weida管理层对新业务的3分钟热度

昨天看了Bursa Dvmmy的文章后,我就去查看Weida过去数年的业务变化,并把重点放在脱售Mutiara Goodyear股权与脱售种植业务,我想从不同的切入点来分析这两项企业活动,如果我是Weida的管理层,我会脱售这些业务吗?我是机会主义者,如果给我选择的话,我想我一定会进行这两项企业活动。我认为,这些企业活动都是有关联的,比方说如果没有脱售Mutiara的股权,那Weida或许没有足够的资金或精力去进军种植业务;同样的,如果没有脱售种植业务,债务负担沉重的Weida也没有能力涉足产业发展业务。

Weida在2009年10月以每股不低于97分的价格脱售Mutiara Goodyear约13.8%的股权,这项企业活动为它带来了约9.25%的回酬,当时Mutiara Goodyear在公开市场的价格只是区区的64分,2009年Mutiara Goodyear的产业发展业务并不理想,滞销的产业竟然高达2亿(inventory),净负债高达1.5亿,虽然NTA高达RM1.35,可2010与2009的每股盈利只有1.4分与7.56分。若不脱售这批股权,身为大股东的Weida就必须花上大笔精力来把它的Bandar Tasek Mutiara (Pearl City) 的发展计划搞好,在沉重利息的负担与庞大滞销产业的前提下,要把这非核心业务搞好并非易事。当时,Weida管理层能够以每股不低于97分的价格脱售这批股权也算是个不错的结局了,脱售股权消息公布后,Weida与Mutiara Goodyear的股价纷纷走高就证明当时的股东是欢迎这企业活动的,况且Weida获得的资金都是用来还债,总债务从RM120mil减少到RM88mil(可以参考我早前的功课)。我猜想,如果没有这项脱售活动,在那么高的债务之下,Weida种植业务会否出现状况呢?

Weida在2007年在沙洲买入16000亩的土地来翻种油棕,在2012年末建议脱售种植业务给TH Plantation,这项建议在 27/2/2013完成后,Weida就摇身一变成为净现金公司并开始涉足产业发展业务。许多人对Weida脱售种植业务的企业活动感到不解并认为这样杀鹅取卵是极为短视的。我认为,大家都太过武断了,我想或许也没有多少人认真地去读它脱售种植业务的建议书就妄下定论了。其实有种植油棕的小园主在高价卖出油棕园是件很平常的事,只要价格合理,并没有所谓的远见或短视之说,主要的原因是市场上总会有机会买入更廉宜的地段来开发油棕业务,我有个朋友最近就是卖出了它开始收成的园丘并以更廉宜的价格买入另一块园丘来种植油棕树。我想如果现在Weida要在沙洲买入同样规模地段来种植油棕的话,应该不会是件难事,可是油棕业真的像大家想像中的那么好赚吗?我有着不同的看法,我认为现在最该避开的就是种植股了,看了种植公司那么多即将成熟的地段后,我相信接下来几年的油棕产量将远远超出需求,油棕业极有可能再次陷入1997-2000年的低潮。试想想目前CPO价格的荣景只是El-nino效应在苦苦支撑,可3-5个月之后呢?短期的利好VS还有2-3年产量高度增长期,想想下我都会感到心寒,马印政府的B5、B7、B10混合柴油未必是万灵药啊!当然这些都是话外题,就此打住。。

上图是Weida脱售种植业务的简介,脱售价格RM151.371mil,脱售净盈利是RM48.953mil。在脱售的约6513公顷地段之中,如果减去其它股东的份额,Weida的净地段也就只有区区的3700公顷罢了。我想这3700公顷在沙洲的地段要赚取RM48.953的净利或许10年都做不到的,看看现在的CPO价格与成本就知道了,用最简单的法子就是拿在沙洲的上市公司种植业的盈利来比较。另外值得一提的是,这6513去公顷的地段其实只是翻种了5424公顷,其中的769公顷才开始要翻种,因此它的种植业务其实也不是大家想像中的要步入大丰收才套利的。除此之外,翻看它的建议书就可以看到买卖合约时的价格是以CPO=RM2831平均价来计算,因此这脱售计划看似以折价方式出售,实则是Weida赚大了。下图是脱售地段的用途:

当然,最让我高兴的是脱售了种植业务后,Weida每年能够省下约RM4.38mil的利息支出并能够把资产、人力都投入产业发展业务之中,这才是Weida在2015年下半年爆发的契机。在这样的前提之下,对我来说"管理层3分钟热度“的疑虑不再是件坏事了。我认为能够物尽其用的管理层才算是合格的,如果Weida管理层什么都不做而只守着生产、水务与电讯塔业务的话,我或许又不会看上它了。各花入各眼,不一样的切入点就有不一样的结果,只要做了功课并知道自己买入的是怎么样的一家公司,以后就算亏了也就算是对得起自己了。顺便附上Weida卖种植业务的考量给大家参考,有时站在股东的角度来思考,就会有着不一样的体验。共勉之。




11 条评论:

CK Alma 说...

2009 脱售Mutiara Goodyear並沒有錯,因为308 改变梹州政治版图,不妨查看当时Mutiara Goodyear 老板和 major shareholders 是谁?

wynlim

糊涂 说...

谢谢wynlim兄补充,很多时候事过境迁之后,本来是对的决定,过后却变成非常的不智。我们往往会往坏的方面去思考,极少人会思考当时情况时的选择考量。研究股票是如此,生活上也相去不远。许许多多的纷争都由此而来,所以偶尔糊涂一下也是不错的。哈哈。

谭振聪 说...

糊涂兄,你认为现在最该避开的是种植股,理由是库存不断增加,生化柴油不靠谱,el nino也只是一时的效应。你的论点跟官有缘先生的论点完全对立,他认为今年CPo会因为el nino效应而起到RM3,000,因而大力唱好种植股。

一边唱好,一边唱衰,最终只有一边会对。

希望糊涂兄能写一篇关于“种植股的隐忧”,以解我们小投资者的疑惑。

谢谢

糊涂 说...

谭振聪兄,
我看到的是数年前许多种植公司纷纷扩大种植地段,还有不少非种植公司也进军种植业,算算下,这几年里这些种植地段都将步入高产期,需求可无法只会缓慢成长的前提下,CPO的寒冬应该是不远了。除此之外,我们也该尽量避免过度投资于产业股之中,我的做法是在投资组合之中限制自己投资一家产业公司或直接不参与产业公司的投资。weida不算是产业公司,我也只看好它的这两项发展计划,接下来的发展计划可能没有那么顺利了。

Edmund 说...

Hi Mr Hutu,

Kindly forgive me for using English to post my thoughts because it is much more convenient for me to do so. Actually i can read and write in Mandarin sorry again :)

I personally not yet study Weida, so kindly bear with me if my sharing is not correct.

It might be quite right for Weida to dispose of Mutiara Goodyear due to its own heavy balance sheet at that point of time. Weida's business are not that stable in term of cash flow generating capabilities. I believe the intention of management is to hopefully investing in a new business which is more promising and able to generate healthy cash flow for company in the long run. In 2009, it sold this investment anyway.

My personal take is that it is very weird for Weida mgmt to do so. It is commonly understood that property development is a capex-heavy industry in which company need to fork out certain level of cash for its development expenditure, but only getting back the profit afterwards. When Weida decided to invest in this business, it should have known this and plan ahead. If its own balance sheet is already overly stressed, then it is certainly not a right move to invest Goodyear Mutiara at that point of time. They might be eating more than they can swallow.

As for plantation business, i believe there are cycle in this. In fact every industries has its own cycle, no matter how profitable it is. From my point of view, it is not about selling off the business when the time is good or bad, but rather how to focus on managing it and turn it around so that it becomes a cash cow, if possible.

Today Weida venture into property development business. I believe it has certain advantage because it is a construction company by itself, as compared to those companies which do not have any background in this area, still choose to join the bandwagon, hoping for the huge profit. If i were to invest in a property sector, there are other companies which has been in this industry since day one and are a much stronger "monster" as compared to Weida, e.g IGB, Plenitude, Daiman and so on (with very strong balance sheet)

In conclusion, my personal take is that Weida is not my cup of tea. It is cash rich right now, it is undervalued in term of balance sheet right now. Its project might be selling like a hot cake now. Hopefully it can continue to flourish in property development in LONG TERM.

Anyway, individual opinion will not determine the share price of a company. Weida's share price might still be going up or down, no matter what we comment over here. The important point of stock investing is how we draw our own principal. Everyone is different from everyone. That's make sharing so fun.

Thanks. Forgive me if i am wrong :)

CK Alma 说...

股市好像要調整了!剛才不经意看到CLSA2014股市风水图,今年七月最高峰.八和九月下調.风水图从年头到七月还很凖.沒有偏差. 再加上2013,完美图形,已经是整整19个沒有出差错.曾几何时,外国人也需要靠风水找吃? 无论如何,小心驶得万年船.

糊涂 说...

Cheah,
我看得懂中英文,所以用英文留言也行,最重要是能够交流与分享看法就行了。赞同你的论点,在还没有进行投资行业之前,weida的管理层的risk assessments做得不够好,从mutiara goodyear到油棕业,从油棕业又回到产业的交易中就可以看出管理层似乎是看一步走一步的策略,见好就收。少了企业家应有的魄力与坚持。还好这不是它的核心业务的营运模式,不然哪有投资家愿意押在这样的管理层上。我也认为公司的vision与mission明确,管理层都往设立的宏愿的方向发展才有机会逐渐成长成为大企业,weida在方面还是差了一点点。不过,它接下来三年的盈利确定性高,也值得我大力的huut下去了。M0

糊涂 说...

谢谢wynlim兄的提醒,这期间我会小心留意的,形势不妙就会尽快通知大家逃命。这市场有点乱乱来了,或许老牛撑不到明年新年了,应该慢慢减持了。除了买入weida之外,其它的股项我已慢慢出场了,我的weida应该会留到11月的季报,拿了股息再走吧?

谭振聪 说...

fiamma 也跑人了?我还没赚够,wuwuwu...

糊涂 说...

还有11张留在冰箱里,市场上的票不多了,只要8月业绩好就会再一次冲刺,恭喜大赚啊。

Edmund 说...

Hi Mr Hutu,

Yeap you are right, looking at the current selling prospect of its property project, it will be a earning booster for the coming few years.

There are up and downs in property market too. I personally also hold IGB and Plenitude. Due to their strong balance sheet and assets base, i believe they can weather through the coming downturn, the best case is to acquire more good properties for long term recurring income.

Let's hope for the best for all of us. Thanks for your invaluable sharing again :)