我不敢说现在的东洋化学业务开始好转，但却相信国际石油价格不会再大幅度往上攀了。
只要原油价格不再大幅度上扬，东洋化学的赚幅与成长是绝对可期的。
所以，我昨天以RM2.42的价格买入了一张的Toyochem。
东洋化学于1988年成立，在1997年年尾上市，其母公司Toyo Ink Japan是日本最大的油墨生产、销售集团。其主要业务是生产油墨与相关的印刷相关产品，其产品约40%内销，其余的出口至新加坡、泰国、中东等国家。
旧闻
原料价涨赚幅收窄 东洋化学仍领先群雄
2006/03/07 18:16:00
●南洋商报
吉隆坡7日讯-在原料价格高涨及赚幅收窄的影响下，东洋化学(Toyochem，7026，二板工业产品股)于2005年的盈利也呈偏低状态，但若与同行业者相比，该公司依然领先群雄。市场的竞争激烈，再加上海外市场于佳节期间长时间暂停营业，导致该公司的营业额按季下滑了8.2％。此外，在原料价格偏高、市场竞争压力、及制造商无法突破原料价格高涨的多面“夹攻”下，该公司的毛盈利赚幅也从之前的21.6％下滑至16.9％。然而低效率的税率及拨备金的重新入帐，也促使该公司的净盈利仅出现了1％的变化。
净收益胜预测
总的来说，2005年1千300万令吉的净收益，却比南方银行证券行1千200万令吉的预计来得高。虽然如此，营运表现却大大劣于证券行的预测。其中，营业额按年下滑了5.8％，市场的竞争及原料的偏高价格也致使毛盈利按年下滑14％。同时，这些因素也造成2005年净利下滑11.2％。该集团于芙蓉的新液体墨汁生产设备于通集团005年第四季开始投入服务，并以85至90％的容量使用率进行运作。新厂解决了莎阿南的工厂过于拥挤的问题，为油性墨汁制造方面的赚幅及库存，带来了更大的发展空间。
产量增10至15％
简单的说，新厂预计将增加产量至额外的10％至15％，并改进营运的效率、减少劳工成本、同时节省流物成本(搬迁至靠近其芙蓉的主要日本客户)。南方银行证券行的分析员预计，其营业额也能增加5.5％至1亿6千680万令吉。但是毛盈利赚幅，仍将偏低于2001年至2005年21.2％的平均水平。这是由于：一、燃油再度攀升，导致原料价格及运输费用也水涨船高；二、燃油价格对赚幅的“侵蚀”速度，迅速于售卖价格的赚幅成长速度；三、芙蓉新厂所需的运输价格比沙亚南旧厂的来得高。 有鉴于此，分析员下修了该公司的净收益预测9.3％至1千180万令吉。由于莎阿南的工厂，如今能贮存更多具时效性的油性墨汁产品，东洋化学相信将因此能更佳的服务客户，并在未来增加更多的市场份额。目前，油性墨汁为该公司的营业额贡献了将近50％，其余的30％及20％则分别来自液体墨汁及图像美术供应。南方银行证券行的分析员相信，目前混合型的销售能继续以稳健的姿态成长。
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2005年1月 - The Edge的报导
Investing Ideas: Hidden gem in Toyochem
By Lim Ai Leen
The Malaysian investor's dig for small, hidden gems on the local stock market unearthed another find last week. Lowprofile Toyochem Corp Bhd saw its stock climb 7.9% between Jan 3 and 7, hitting its 12-month peak of RM2.86 last Friday. This Second Board inks maker hardly ever makes the news, or features in the equity analysts' research reports. But this state of affairs may change soon, judging from the buying interest. "It's on the foreign funds' buy programme for second liners," observes a local fund manager. It has also hit the mainstream research circuit. Last Thursday, SBB Securities' head of research Ng Jun Sheng called a "buy" on the stock, and pegged his 12-month target price at RM3.30.
"The group has been consistently recording commendable performance despite rising raw material costs and stiff competition, with its earnings per share [EPS] recording a compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] of 13.2% for 1999 to 2003," he says in his report. Toyochem is a dominant player in the Malaysian ink and printing supplies industry, controlling between 35% and 40% of market share. It is backed by established global brand Toyo Ink Japan, via Toyo Ink Asia Ltd, which has a 51% stake in Toyochem. The company manufactures inks, printing chemicals and coatings that can be applied to a wide range of products including newspapers, metal drums, corrugated boards, plastic materials and food products. Toyochem listed in 1997 and has seen steady profits since. For its financial year (FY) ended Dec 31, 1998, the company recorded a net profit of RM7.5 million on the back of RM109.5 million in sales revenue. Five years later, net profit has grown 80%, weighing in at RM13.5 million for FY2003. Sales, meanwhile, only increased 30% over the same period, to RM142.5 million.
Full-year earnings for 2004 look set to improve further. For the first nine months of last year, the company made a net profit of RM11.7 million, up 20.6% from the RM9.7 million earned for the same period in FY2003. Sales grew 20.2%, from RM105.3 million in FY2003 to RM126.6 million last year.
According to Ng, the company's growth is being driven by its aggressive market penetration overseas, capitalising on its Japanese parent's global network. "Today, its exports have increased to roughly 55% to 60% from 40% to 45% before 2000, and its distribution networks are now stretching to the Middle East and East Asia, from predominantly Asean countries when it listed in 1997. We expect higher export sales of about 60% in the next two to three years…" he explains.
Ng expects Toyochem to earn an average of 35 sen per share for the next two financial years — this will be driven by prudent cost control, improving operational efficiency and market expansion.
Early bird icapital.biz of Capital Dynamics spotted Toyochem's potential as far back as August 2003, describing it as "a rather intriguing company" at the time. This stock market specialist was amazed that despite the economic slowdown, Toyochem's sales rose a healthy 15%, and its pre-tax profit surged 24.3% in FY2002.
This good performance, says icapital.biz, was due to the higher portion of local sales (which yields a higher profit margin), exports to the higher-margin Middle Eastern market and the company's bulk purchase of its raw materials, which helped contain costs. Like all early birds, icapital.biz got its worms ahead of the latecomers. Toyochem has been declaring dividends since listing, with the most recent payout being the 11.5 sen given last July. But there are more returns to come, says SBB's Ng.
"Total gross dividend declared has been on a rising trend, from 3% declared in FY1997 to 11.5% in FY2003. In our view, with the substantial RM36 million in net cash, investment in higher yield fixed-income instruments [about RM9 million as at Sept 30 last year] coupled with continuous steady profits for the next two to three years, there is ample room for higher dividend distribution in the future," he reasons. Returning capital to shareholders will not take place at the expense of expansion. In August 2003, icapital.biz noted that Toyo Ink Japan had decided to make Toyochem's Shah Alam factory the regional plant for manufacturing offset ink, taking over production for Indonesia and Thailand. This expansion took place in 2003, and was financed internally. "The full benefits of this expansion will be felt in FY2004," stated icapital.biz
The company's valuations are another plus point.
SBB estimates that at RM2.66, Toyochem's stock is trading at a forward price-earnings ratio (PER) of 7.2 times its FY2005 earnings. With the average stock market PER hovering at about 15 times currently, this means that Toyochem's shares are a bargain. The story gets better once the company's RM36 million in net cash is factored in. "Excluding the 88 sen net cash, prospective PER for FY2005 is only 4.8 times," states SBB. It would seem that Toyochem is set to be in the front line of the "small is beautiful" cause. "As big-cap stocks were the forerunners in 2004, the investment community is gradually turning friendlier towards the small-cap stocks. We opine that Toyochem stands out from its peers…" says Ng. Ironically, this small company's continued good performance could hasten its move to the Main Board. Ng notes that the company is in a position to make a bonus issue of shares from its reserves, thus rewarding shareholders and improving trading liquidity. Assuming the bonus issue takes place, and the company's paid-up share capital reaches RM60 million, it will be eligible to turn big cap. "An upgrade to the Main Board will provide the company with greater prestige and prominence amongst its investors," Ng comments.
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